Sales Comparisons

From Holdenpaedia
Jump to: navigation, search

Originally submitted by ReaperHR Mar 16 2006:

Return to the Related Interest Page

Sales Comparisons

This page is a simple effort to diagnose the sales of each series of Holden from the FX to the VX. The idea here is to get the sales, analyse the amount of sales per month and the duration of the production run and see just which models deserved more of a chance and which didn't get enough of a chance. I've also added a sales vs population column as suggested by Circlotron. Worth noting however is that the very early Holdens simply didn't have the production facilities available to pump out vehicles like the later commodores did. Also they had to compete with the Australian interest in American cars and a far lower population. The later models however had far better production facilities but also had to compete with more imported and local vehicles, competition however can be said to roughly keep pace with Holdens production in the middle to later ranges. Also note the emmissions standards changes hurt sales, the oil crisis hurt sales, population increase helped sales, different types of vehicle released by Holden took away from sales of these Holdens (i.e. Torana, Gemini, Apollo, Vectra, Astra, Combo etc) Anyway onto the diagnosis, the table below shows each model, it's release month and its sales during its run. It then shows the duration in months the production went for and the average sales per month. The second and third last columns show the position in the table of the model relative to its brethren in average sales and duration of production. The chance column is a number representing the relationship between the average sales and duration, a high number shows that the car wasn't selling very well or was being sold for too long, a low or negative number shows that the car was selling very well and could have done better if allowed to sell for longer, numbers closer to zero show that Holden pretty much got it right, the car had enough time to get decent sales (FC, HX). Finally is the estimated population of Australia in that year column and the Sales vs Population column. The Sales vs population column takes the average monthly sales of the vehicle, multiplies by 12 to get an estimated 12 months total and divides that by the population in thousands, this gives a number that can be used to compare the sales with the population of Australia at the time:
Holden Sales Comparisons
Model Released Number Sold Duration (Months) Avg Sales/Month Position (Average) Position (Duration) Chance Given Estimated Australian Population 12 Months Sales vs Population
FX Nov 48 120402 60 2006.70 28 1 27 8,024,000 3.001
FJ Oct 53 169969 32 5311.53 23 4 19 8,815,000 7.231
FE Jul 56 155161 22 7052.77 18 9 9 9,455,000 8.951
FC May 58 191724 19 10090.74 12 12 0 9,882,000 12.253
FB Jan 60 174747 16 10921.68 9 15 -6 10,309,000 12.713
EK May 61 150214 14 10729.57 11 17 -6 10,523,000 12.236
EJ Jul 62 154811 13 11908.54 8 19 -11 10,736,000 13.311
EH Aug 63 256959 18 14275.50 1 13 -12 10,950,000 15.644
HD Feb 65 176927 14 12637.64 4 17 -13 11,460,000 13.233
HR Apr 66 252352 21 12016.76 7 10 -3 11,716,000 12.308
HK Jan 68 199039 16 12439.94 6 15 -9 12,227,000 12.209
HT May 69 183402 14 13100.14 2 17 -15 12,482,000 12.594
HG Jul 70 155787 12 12982.25 3 18 -15 12,737,000 12.231
HQ Jul 71 485650 39 12452.56 5 2 3 12,993,000 11.501
HJ Oct 74 176202 20 8810.10 15 11 4 13,692,000 7.721
HX Jul 76 110669 15 7377.93 17 16 1 14,070,000 6.292
HZ Oct 77 154155 30 5138.5 24 5 19 14,259,000 4.324
VB Oct 78 95906 17 5641.53 22 14 8 14,448,000 4.686
VC Mar 80 121807 19 6410.89 19 12 7 14,826,000 5.189
WB Apr 80 60231 62? 971.47 29 1? 28? 14,826,000 0.786
VH Oct 81 141018 28 5036.36 26 7 19 15,015,000 4.025
VK Feb 84 135705 23 5654.38 21 7 15 15,581,000 4.355
VL Feb 86 151801 30 5060.03 25 6 19 15,959,000 3.805
VN Aug 88 215180 38 5662.63 20 3 17 16,337,000 4.159
VP Oct 91 92860 21 4421.90 27 10 17 16,904,000 3.139
VR Jul 93 165262 20 8263.10 16 11 5 17,667,000 5.612
VS Apr 95 250000 28 8928.57 14 6 8 18,121,000 5.913
VT Aug 97 280000 28 10000.00 13 6 7 18,576,000 6.460
VX Oct 00 250000 23 10869.57 10 8 2 19,153,000 6.810
 
 
Holden Sales Comparisons
Type of Ordering 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Ordered by Sales Average EH HT HG HD HQ HK HR EJ FB VX EK FC VT VS HJ VR HX FE VC VN VK VB FJ HZ VL VH VP FX
Ordered by Production Length FX HQ VN FJ HZ VL VH VS VT VK VX FE VP VR FC VC EH VB FB HK HX EK HD HT HG EJ - - - - - - - - -
Which Cars deserved more production time HG HT EH HD EJ HK FB EK HR FC HX HQ VX HJ VR VC VT VB VS FE VK VP VN FJ HZ VH VL FX - - - - - -
Ordered by Sales vs Population EH EJ HD FB HT HR FC EK HG HK HQ FE HJ FJ VX VT HX VS VR VC VB VK HZ VN VH VL VP FX
 

Now these calculations only take into account the production run length and the number of sales of these vehicles over that period so it is hardly perfect, it does give us a rough indication of what vehicles deserved to have a longer production run and what vehicles were allowed to run far too long. Don't forget again though the factors mentioned above that would help or hurt sales. The surprise winners (?) of the car that didn't get enough of a chance though is the HG and HT. These 2 can be seen to stand out, getting very respectable sales but not having a long enough production run to achieve more (note however that this doesn't take into account the fact that sales are higher early on). Another point worth noting is the widely acknowledged success of the EH, the table also shows that the EH actually deserved to run for longer, how many sales could have it gotten then?! Another surprise was the HD, with the same chance needed for more sales that the EH needed. Also note that the commonly "hated" HD outsold its brother the HR by on average around 600 cars per month, was this why Holden then moved to the shape of the HK, HT and HG? Did they give up on the shape of the car? Maybe they should have continued with the E series for another model or two... The greatest failure seemed to be the WB, but considering its "specialty" range I have left it out of affecting the calculations because it appears to perform more as an anomoly and is probably unfair to compare it to these mainline models, it is however shown in the graphs at the bottom of this page. The early Holdens far outperformed their later offspring (the V-Series) in general in average sales per month and the need for a longer production run. Infact from the HZ to VP we see sales drop to roughly the level of the FJ which had lacked production (the VC being better by far than the others but still not returning to the popularity of the earlier series). Sales have only very recently returned to a decent level of on average 10000+ sales per month with the VT and VX. Finally we look at the Sales vs Population column. As you can see the EH again stands out, literally there is nothing even close to how well it did as the Sales vs Population graph below shows. The WB also stands out, with approximately 1000 sales per month for a huge production run of 62(?) months, it is hard to understand why Holden persisted for as long as they did with it. As you can see in the lower of the two graphs below, it barely made a ripple in sales. <img longdesc="http://localhost/index.php/Image:Sales_graph.JPG" src="/images/3/3c/Sales_graph.JPG" alt="Image:Sales_graph.JPG" />
Small Holden Sales Comparisons
Class Model Released Number Sold Duration (Months) Avg Sales/Month Position (Average) Position (Duration) Chance Given Estimated Australian Population 12 Months Sales vs Population
Torana HB May 67 36561 29 1253.48 13 1 12 11,972,000 1.256
Torana LC Oct 69 74627 28 2665.25 4 2 2 12,482,000 2.562
Torana LJ Feb 72 81813 25 3272.52 1 4 -3 13,168,000 2.982
Torana TA Apr 74 11304 13 869.54 16 8 8 13,692,000 0.762
Torana LH Mar 74 70184 23 3051.48 3 6 -3 13,692,000 2.674
Gemini TX Mar 75 43099 24 1795.79 10 5 5 13,881,000 1.552
Torana LX Feb 76 65977 25 2639.08 5 4 1 14,070,000 2.251
Gemini TC Mar 77 17256 13 1327.38 11 8 3 14,259,000 1.117
Torana UC Mar 78 53008 24? 2208.67 9 5 4 14,448,000 1.834
Gemini TD Apr 78 42396 18 2355.33 8 7 1 14,448,000 1.956
Gemini TE Oct 79 70567 29 2433.34 6 1 5 14,637,000 1.994
Gemini TF Mar 82 28326 12 2360.50 7 9 -2 15,203,000 1.863
Camira JB Aug 82 85725 27 3175.00 2 3 -1 15,203,000 2.506
Gemini TG Mar 83 24675 25 987 15 4 11 15,392,000 0.769
Camira JD Nov 84 36953 29 1274.24 12 1 11 15,581,000 0.981
Gemini RB Apr 85 16263 24 677.63 17 5 12 15,770,000 0.516
Camira JE Apr 87 29129 29 1004.45 14 1 13 16,148,000 0.746
 
Holden Sales Comparisons
Type of Ordering 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Ordered by Sales Average LJ(T) JB(C) LH(T) LC(T) LX(T) TE(G) TF(G) TD(G) UC(T) TX(G) TC(G) JD(C) HB(T) JE(C) TG(G) TA(T) RB(G)
Ordered by Production Length HB(T) TE(G) JD(C) JE(C) LC(T) JB(C) LJ(T) LX(T) TG(G) TX(G) UC(T) RB(G) LH(T) TD(G) TA(T) TC(G) TF(G) - - - - - - - -
Which Cars deserved more production time LJ(T) LH(T) TF(G) JB(C) LX(T) TD(G) LC(T) TC(G) UC(T) TX(G) TE(G) TA(T) TG(G) JD(C) HB(T) RB(G) JE(C) - - - - -
Ordered by Sales vs Population LJ(T) LH(T) LC(T) JB(C) LX(T) TE(G) TD(G) TF(G) UC(T) TX(G) HB(T) TC(G) JD(C) TG(G) TA(T) JE(C) RB(G)
 
Now looking at the smaller models the first thing that slaps us in the face is that they didn't sell anywhere near as well as their larger brothers. This isn't entirely surprising however due to them being aimed at the more niche markets. Infact only the now popular LJ Torana even came close to the success of any of the larger Holdens, that being the FX which as we know lacked production facilities and such a large market as the Torana had available. When comparing these vehicles with their Holden peers though we can see the general form is that Toranas were more popular than Geminis which were in turn generally more popular than Camiras. The LH Torana was cursed with a pitiful production length (even though on average these cars all ran for approximately two years) and looks from the tables like it could have had a far better sales total if allowed to run for longer. It was joined by the most popular of these smaller Holdens, the LJ Torana, which also appears to have needed to be given more of a chance on the market. Considering however that these two models were sold back to back and also alongside the TA Torana and late in their run the TX Gemini and add to that the fact that they were also sold alongside the larger HQ and HJ Holdens, these two models can be considered to have really done quite well for themselves. The standout failure of the smaller series was the RB Gemini, it sold pitifully at around 677 cars a month (approximately 23 cars a day) which really stands out when compared to the best selling EH at 14275.50 cars a month (approximately 476 cars a day) and even against the next worst seller of these smaller models, the JE Camira, with 1004.45 sales per month (approximately 33 sales per day). <img longdesc="http://localhost/index.php/Image:Sales_graph2.JPG" src="/images/a/a2/Sales_graph2.JPG" alt="Image:Sales_graph2.JPG" /> Next on this page I will endeavour to add the smaller cars sales to relevant sections of the larger cars sales and compare the total sales of the Holdens of these years like they were part of the larger Holdens run.

Links:

Terms:

Terms


Return to the Related Interest Page